The battleground for  retailers this US holiday season is over merchandise priced at US$35 and less, setting the stage for the cheapest shopping period in years for TVs, toys, dresses, and sporting goods, according to retail executives, federal pricing data and exclusive analysis of early Black Friday discounts.

Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed.

The price of a TV is three-fourths of what it was in 2019, while men's suits, outerwear, sports coats, women's dresses and audio equipment are 8 percent to 14 percent cheaper compared with pre-pandemic levels, BLS data for October shows.

"The deals are really good on TVs," said Theresa Forsberg, who picked up a 55-inch for US$188 at Walmart in New Milford, Connecticut, on Black Friday. Jill Lizzo, in New York's Harlem, found bargains on toothpaste and Christmas decorations at Target this year, a relief because her rent is more expensive.

To be sure, prices overall are higher in 2023 despite slowed price growth, with October's US consumer price index climbing to 3.2 percent year-over-year. The figure remained flat on a month-over-month basis, signaling some holiday item prices may be slow to come down.

Despite a dip in sporting goods prices, they continue to pace above 2019 levels. Girls' apparel has also remained above pandemic-era levels, while the average price of furniture has steadily risen since September.

Certain prices are falling after pandemic-induced kinks in the supply chain and a huge shift in demand toward goods over services over the past two years pushed up prices for nearly every consumer good, from eggs and butter to Barbie dolls and tennis rackets.

Walmart said prices of general merchandise – clothing, electronics, furniture – had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season.

Target executives said they have seen inflation moderate, but that it's still a very "rational environment."

"If there's one thing that we've seen is in an environment where people are making choices and they might have some constraints with their budget, the motivation to buy is, really, is this going to add value to my life?” Target chief growth officer Christina Hennington said on a call last week. (Reuters)