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'More actions needed to achieve 5pc growth target'

2024-03-05 HKT 20:49
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  • Thomas Shik, Chief Economist at Hang Seng Bank, says that the five percent growth target is "achievable" if authorities do more to support the economy. File photo: AFP
    Thomas Shik, Chief Economist at Hang Seng Bank, says that the five percent growth target is "achievable" if authorities do more to support the economy. File photo: AFP
China must take more concrete actions if it is to achieve its five percent economic growth target for 2024, economists said on Tuesday.

The comments came after Premier Li Qiang said in his work report that the country’s gross domestic growth for this year will be five percent, the same as last year.

While some economists believe the goal is ambitious, Thomas Shik, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank, said the target was "achievable" given the introduction of support measures for the property and financial markets.

But he said that this year’s goal can only be achieved if authorities provide more stimulus to aid growth as external challenges persist.

“The global environment is quite challenging given high interest rates in the US and Europe, and geopolitical tensions are high. Domestically, the housing market adjustments are continuing,” said Shik.

“I think the key message here is that the government is willing to take actions to maintain economic stability. There are already different kinds of actions in place, but whether the central government will do more, it depends on how the housing market evolves,” said Shik.

Separately, Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at investment bank Natixis said growth of 4.5 percent is more likely this year.

“If you look at the fiscal policy, they have announced a reduction in the fiscal deficit [target] from 3.8 percent to three percent. This is restricted in terms of fiscal policy, and the monetary policy is exactly the same as last year,” said García-Herrero.

“The other reason is that last year they [China’s growth] saw a very large contribution from external demand. But we’ve already seen in the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index figures that export orders are declining, so they will need to do more on consumption,” she added.

Premier Li Qiang in his speech signalled the country will launch a year-long programme to spur domestic spending, with more policies on the way to promote digital, environmentally-friendly and health-related sectors, but Shik noted that more time will be needed.

“Home prices are still falling and stock prices just stabilised. So it will take time to see consumers becoming more willing to spend. It really depends on the sentiment and consumers [expectations of] their income prospects,” said Shik.

García-Herrero, meanwhile, said she is “still hoping that [authorities] will cut interest rates by at least another 50 basis points to support the markets”.

'More actions needed to achieve 5pc growth target'