China's economy to surpass US from 2030: economist - RTHK
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China's economy to surpass US from 2030: economist

2025-01-13 HKT 18:18
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  • Justin Lin says the potential US tariff hikes under Trump will hurt the global economy. Photo: RTHK
    Justin Lin says the potential US tariff hikes under Trump will hurt the global economy. Photo: RTHK
A prominent Chinese economist and national political advisor said China is likely to surpass the United States and become the world's largest economy in about five years, as he dismissed concerns of a second Trump administration's impact on the nation.

The remarks came as Professor Justin Lin, former chief economist and senior vice president at the World Bank, spoke to reporters during the 18th edition of the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong, following a luncheon speech.

Noting that China's economy was experiencing a slowdown, declining from earlier annual growth rates of around nine percent to now about five percent, Lin said that was still about a couple of percentage points higher than the US, which saw its economy expand at around 2.7 percent for 2024.

Lin said that if such a trajectory continued, the Chinese economy would be able to surpass the US as the world's largest between 2030 and 2035.

Separately, Lin dismissed concerns about the potential impact of tariffs, one week ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration.

"We hope Trump will be reasonable, because to charge 60 percent of tariff rates on China, or 25 percent of tariffs on other countries, I don't think that is good for the US, certainly, that's not good for the world [either]," he said.

"We have no control over the trade policies from the US. But if the US is unreasonable, we should be reasonable. And if we maintain togetherness, I think we will be able to weather through any challenges," he added.

On the short-term economic outlook in the country, the senior economist noted the Chinese economy would be able to grow about five percent this year, and the nation would continue to contribute 30 percent or more to global growth.

China's economy to surpass US from 2030: economist