The volume of air cargo shipments from Asia has declined by double digits since the United States cancelled a tax-free exemption for low-value packages from China early in May, trade groups and analysts said.

Air cargo demand from Asia to North America declined 10.7 percent in May versus the same month a year earlier, data from the International Air Transport Association showed, illustrating "the dampening effect of shifting US trade policies," association director general Willie Walsh said in a report.

Shipments valued under US$800 – often sent by air to US customers of low-cost e-commerce platforms such as Shein and PDD's Temu – fall under the so-called de minimis, or too-small-to-matter, tax exemption.

Since May 2, however, such shipments sent from mainland China and Hong Kong have been taxed at a rate initially as high as 145 percent before settling to as low as 30 percent after a mid-May trade detente between the United States and China.

The pair continue to negotiate on trade, with the United States relaxing export restrictions on software, ethane and aerospace to China this week, ahead of July 9 when Washington plans to reimpose a range of steep tariffs targeting multiple countries.

The volume of low-value e-commerce shipments from China to the United States in May saw a particularly steep decline, industry experts said. Such shipments fell 43 percent in May from the previous month, showed estimates from air cargo consultancy Aevean, but rose to other main export markets including Europe and South-East Asia.

It is not clear whether such dramatic declines will continue, said Aevean managing director Marco Bloemen, given businesses had anticipated the de minimis halt and because the tariff rate was lowered mid-month.

"Will those e-commerce players bounce back to the United States now they're paying 30 percent duties instead of zero duties?" Bloemen said. Companies turning to other markets due to US trade policy uncertainty is also likely weighing on shipment volume, he said. "That's a trend that we're expecting to continue – there's more Europe-destined e-commerce expected in the month of June, also to markets like Latin America."

Air cargo consultancy Rotate said e-commerce platforms were focusing on other markets to replace lost US demand, with significant export growth to the European Union and Asia-Pacific region.

Low-value e-commerce out of Asia has been taking an increasing proportion of global air freight and boosting airlines' cargo businesses.

Last year such shipments – at 1.2 million tonnes – made up 55 percent of goods shipped from China to the United States by air compared to just 5 percent in 2018, Aevean data showed.

As Asia-to-US demand fell in May, airlines pulled freighter aircraft off trans-Pacific routes and placed them elsewhere, industry experts said.

Some of that demand has now returned as companies take advantage of tariff pauses between the United States and a number of countries, but flight frequencies are reduced, they said. (Reuters)