China's economy grew 4.8 percent in the third quarter of the year, official data showed on Monday, matching forecasts.

GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.2 percent year on year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

"The national economy withstood pressure and continued to maintain steady progress," the NBS said in a statement about the first three quarters of the year.

The world's second-largest economy expanded 5.2 percent in the second quarter and 5.4 percent in the January-March period.

China is aiming for full-year growth of around 5 percent.

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1 percent from July to September, compared with a forecast 0.8 percent increase and a revised 1 percent gain in the previous quarter.

"I think the third-quarter performance of the Chinese economy is largely factory- or manufacturing-driven, with a very solid export number as well," said Raymond Yeung, Greater China chief economist at ANZ.

Extra working days in September, he added, had also led to a "surprisingly" good industrial production figure for the month, which rose 6.5 percent year on year, accelerating from a 5.2 percent increase in August.

However, Yeung noted that other key indicators remained "largely weak", especially that for fixed asset investment, which shrank 0.5 percent in the first nine months compared with the same period last year, versus a 0.5 percent growth in the January-August period.

"This is the only negative number, except for the Covid and pandemic period, since such a data series started back in 1998," he warned.

"I think it was impacted by two factors.

"One is the continual decline in property investments, and the other because of the anti-involution campaign launched by authorities to restrict over-investment and alleviate overcapacity issues, also as a way to curb deflationary pressure," Yeung said.

"But I don't expect this will change over the next few months as China wants such policies to ease the deflationary pressure in different markets."

Yeung, however, noted that Beijing and state-owned enterprises would continue to invest in targeted industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics, along with major infrastructure projects in the pipeline.

Looking ahead, Yeung expects the country's economy to hit its full-year growth target of "around 5 percent" – despite the trade tensions with the United States.

"The tariff and trade tensions with the US are becoming increasingly less impactful on China's actual economic performances, especially when you see Chinese export numbers were pretty solid," he said.

"It's more about the domestic issues that have dragged down the Chinese growth, and the primary sector that has resulted in the slower growth is the property market. And that should be the focus of the policies from Beijing," Yeung added.

Meanwhile, retail sales expanded three percent last month after growing 3.4 percent in August, matching a forecast rise of three percent.

Retail sales of consumer goods went up 4.5 percent year on year in the first three quarters.

China's value-added service output went up 5.4 percent year on year in the first three quarters.

The surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2 percent in the first three quarters.

China's per capita disposable income went up 5.1 percent year on year in nominal terms in the first three quarters.

Property investment in China fell 13.9 percent in the first three quarters year on year, after dropping 12.9 percent in the January-to-August period.

Property sales by floor area dropped 5.5 percent year on year, compared with a 4.7 percent decline in the first eight months.

The release of the latest economic data came as the Communist Party kicks off its fourth plenum in Beijing, mapping out the goals for the country's next Five-Year Plan.

President Xi Jinping, who's also general secretary of the Party Central Committee, delivered a work report on behalf of the Politburo and expounded on the party leadership's draft proposals for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) for national economic and social development.

The leaders are meeting at a time of heightened trade tensions between Beijing and Washington and ahead of an expected meeting between Xi and US President Donald Trump during the Apec summit in South Korea. (Xinhua & agencies)
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Last updated: 2025-10-20 HKT 15:57