Chinese University researchers have unveiled a new predictive model specifically tailored for Chinese people who suffer from type-2 diabetes, to more accurately assess their chances of developing major complications over their lifetimes.

The Chinese Diabetes Outcome Model (CDOM) is designed to estimate the chance of patients developing ten serious conditions, including stroke, heart disease, kidney disease and cancer.

Data from over 21,000 local diabetes patients was used to build the model, developed in a decade-long collaboration with Oxford University.

Juliana Chan of the university’s Department of Medicine and Therapeutics said a model specific to the Chinese population was essential.

"We know that there are differences between Asians and Europeans," she said, noting that a model developed by Oxford did not perform as well for local patients.

"Asians generally have diabetes younger. They also have diabetes at a lower body weight. They're also more likely to develop stroke and kidney disease, whereas in Europeans, they certainly are more likely to develop heart disease."

With an estimated 800,000 people in Hong Kong, or around one in every ten people here living with diabetes, Chan said the impact is significant.

She added that diabetes is an underlying factor in 30 to 60 percent of major health events like heart attacks, strokes and kidney failure.

The CDOM, she said, would allow healthcare providers to generate personalised risk forecasts for patients.

"When patients come in, or every two years, we can actually estimate what's going to happen in the next 10 or 15 or 20 years," Chan said.

"Then we can… explain to the patient if you, for example, stop smoking, if you control your blood pressure better, if you control your sugar better, if you lose weight, or if you use certain drugs, then the equations would be different."

By empowering patients and doctors to proactively modify risks, she said the tool aims to prevent complications, preserve quality of life and reduce the substantial healthcare costs associated with these major events.