Asian shares dithered on Monday as investors bet the farm on a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve this week, yet the meeting could be one of the most fractious in recent memory with some policy makers openly arguing against an easing.

In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index opened down 17 points, or 0.07 percent, at 26,067.

On the mainland, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.16 percent at 3,909 while the Shenzhen Component Index was 0.24 percent higher at 13,178 and the ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board of growth enterprises, was up 0.32 percent at 3,119.

Markets imply around an 85 percent chance of a quarter-point reduction in the 3.75 percent to 4 percent funds rate, so a steady decision would be a seismic shock. A poll of 108 analysts found only 19 tipping no change, and the rest a cut.

"We expect at least two dissents in favour of no action and that only a slim majority of the 19 FOMC participants will indicate in their updated dots that a December cut was appropriate," wrote Michael Feroli, head of US economics at JPMorgan, in a note.

The FOMC, or Federal Open Market Committee, has not had three or more dissents at a meeting since 2019, and that has happened just nine times since 1990.

Feroli also thinks the Fed will cut in January as insurance against a sustained weakening in the labour market, before going on a lengthy policy pause. Markets currently see only a 24 percent chance of a January move and a further easing is not fully priced until July.

Central banks in Canada, Switzerland and Australia also meet this week and all are seen holding steady. The Swiss National Bank might like to ease again to offset the strength of its franc, but is already at 0 percent and reluctant to go negative.

A run of hot economic data has led markets to abandon any hope of another easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia and even price in a rate hike for late 2026.

Hopes for more Fed stimulus has helped support equities in recent weeks, though the risk of a hawkish outlook on Wednesday made for cautious trading. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both little changed in early action.

Earnings this week from Oracle and Broadcom will test the appetite for all things AI-related, while Costco will provide colour on consumer demand.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.3 percent, after making a modest 0.5 percent gain last week. South Korean stocks eased 0.3 percent, having jumped 4.4 percent last week on confirmation of a lower US tariff on its exports.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was off a slim 0.1 percent in quiet trade. (Reuters/Xinhua)