The Trade Development Council said on Thursday it expects Hong Kong exports to see an annual growth of between 8 and 9 percent next year, citing strong demand for artificial intelligence-related electronic goods.
In the council's poll in this quarter of some 500 exporters, more than half of the respondents said they thought their businesses would be boosted by rising demand for electronic consumer goods to do with AI or new technology.
A little less than half think increased e-commerce uptake will help, while 36 percent of respondents say they believe they'll be boosted by domestic demand stimulus measures on the mainland.
The fourth-quarter poll also showed that Hong Kong exporters were slightly less confident compared to three months ago but still thought the market would expand in the short term, as indicated by TDC indexes that were higher than 50.
The latest current performance index was at 51.4, 1.9 points lower than in the third quarter, while the expectation index came in at 51.9, which was 2.4 points lower.
One of the council's lead researchers, Kenneth Lee, noted that last month's trade truce between China and the United States meant that tariffs were no longer among the top concerns for local exporters.
"For Hong Kong exporters, the effects of US tariffs, be it related to businesses with firms on the mainland or other regions, are no longer among their top three concerns," he said at a press conference.
"We think that's because tariff policies have become clearer since November compared to the start of this year. So for many exporters, this isn't the biggest of concerns for the whole of next year."
Lee noted the exporters instead thought that rising labour and production costs, bigger logistics issues and lack of overseas orders due to the economic slowdown would be the biggest challenges next year.
