The Observatory has forecast that Hong Kong’s annual mean temperature this year is likely to be above normal, with a strong chance of ranking among the top 10 warmest years on record.

Presenting the city’s weather outlook on Monday, Observatory Director Chan Pak-wai said the warmer conditions are linked to the possible development of El Niño later this year — a natural climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean — alongside the ongoing trend of global climate warming.

On tropical cyclones, Chan said the city could expect about four to seven storms to come within 500 kilometres this year, a figure close to normal.

The cyclone season, he said, is forecast to begin in June and end in October.

"The sea surface temperature will be much warmer than normal over the eastern equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, for the western equatorial Pacific, the sea surface temperature will be closer to normal or even lower than normal," he said.

"In that case, the tendency is for the tropical cyclones to form further east and then also they have higher tendency to recurve to the higher latitude. As a result, the impact of Hong Kong will not be as much in terms of numbers in comparison with last year."

Chan added that annual rainfall is also expected to be near normal, ranging between 2,100 and 2,700 millimetres.

However, he noted that the city would still face rainstorms and localised heavy rain, in which the public is urged to stay prepared for both the rain and typhoon seasons.

The director also highlighted the Observatory’s ongoing efforts to enhance forecasting through artificial intelligence.

"The application of AI for heavy rain forecasting and also the use of AI, together with conventional numerical physics based numerical models, to predict the intensity of the tropical cyclones and therefore the wind strength that may be experienced in Hong Kong; we are working in all these directions," he said.

He noted that work is underway in these and other areas to deliver more accurate forecasts for the public.


Edited by Tony Sabine