Accounting giant Deloitte on Monday raised its full-year forecast for the city's retail sales to a growth of 8.4 percent year on year to HK$412 billion in 2026.

The figure is slightly higher than a prediction made in February when the company forecast that total sales would stand at HK$410 billion for the year.

The upgrade also means there could be a seven-percent annual growth rate in the second half of the year.

Between January and June, the city's retail sales grew by 9.7 percent to HK$203 billion.

Speaking at a press briefing, Michael Cheng, Deloitte China's Hong Kong consumer market business leader, said the "stronger-than-expected" first-half results were boosted by high visitor numbers, positive wealth effects, and rising demands for AI-enabled phones, laptops, and smart-home products.

Looking ahead, however, he warned that the pace of growth could slow down in the coming months due to uncertainties related to the global economy, the US mid-term elections, as well as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

He also noted it might take another three to five years for the city's retail market to return to its historic high of HK$490 billion, but stressed the outlook remains positive amid an easing trend of Hongkongers heading north for shopping.

"When you buy so many things after you go to Shenzhen for shopping [each time], you probably don't even know where to put them, because after all we have limited living space in Hong Kong," he told reporters.

"Would you just rent a small storage unit to store all those items? Not really. So we have been seeing the so-called regularised situation – where Hongkongers head north for shopping – slightly changed.

"Of course, there are still people going there for dining or massage. But the trend is starting to ease," he added.

To woo more consumers, the retail veteran called on businesses to consider introducing "micro luxury" items to cater to shoppers who are budget-conscious, while offering more personalised experiences to attract young customers, especially in the Gen Z demographic.


Edited by Aaron Tam