The government on Friday raised Hong Kong’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8 percent from the previous forecast of 3.5 to 4.5 percent.

The rise in the full-year GDP forecast came as the SAR saw strong economic expansion in the third quarter while expecting solid growth in the final three months of the year.

Speaking at a press conference, Government Economist Irina Fan said the economy grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, up from the 4.2 percent growth in the preceding quarter.

She said economic growth in the first nine months of this year reached 5.1 percent over a year earlier – the fastest pace in five years.

“The Hong Kong economy is poised for a strong full-year performance, supported by robust global AI investment and related trade,” Fan said.

“Incoming data on entering the fourth quarter also pointed to sustained growth momentum. Domestic demand should stay resilient.”

She said three drivers of the economy – exports, investment and consumption – continued to grow.

The labour market also stayed broadly stable in the third quarter, with growth in employment earnings over a year earlier, she said.

On inflation, Fan said consumer price inflation has so far been lower than expected.

She noted that while the pass-through of higher oil prices earlier was likely to continue in the coming months, price pressures on other fronts were expected to remain largely contained, so overall inflation should stay moderate.

Fan said the forecast for underlying consumer price inflation rate for 2026 was revised down to 1.9 percent from the previous forecast of 2.5 percent.

The official also said the government will continue to monitor external risks.

“Uncertainties in the external environment persist, including those from geopolitical tensions, US monetary policy, trade protectionist measures, so all these warrant closer monitoring,” she said.


Edited by Edmond Fong